A quiet revolution is underway in the ultimate quest to balance health and taste.
Recently, the global
sugar market has reached a critical turning point. The latest forecast from the International Sugar Organization (ISO) indicates that the global sugar supply for the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to show a surplus of 2.77 million tons, a major shift following several tight seasons.Simultaneously, a milestone event occurred in the domestic sweetener market: D-Allulose has officially gained approval in China and entered the market. Hailed as the "next-generation sugar substitute," this product has about 70% of the sweetness of
sucrose and only 10% of the calories, yet it can perfectly mimic the cooking properties of sugar.
01 Global Sugar Market Shift: From Tight Supply to Expected Surplus
Bumper harvests in the three major sugar-producing countries – Brazil, India, and Thailand – are reshaping the global sugar trade landscape. Sugar production in the Central-South region of Brazil for the 2024/25 crushing season has already reached a record 42.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.
"The current supply increase is mainly due to Brazil's production recovery exceeding expectations," said an agricultural product analyst from a domestic futures company. International raw sugar prices have fallen more than 20% from their peak, and purchasing sentiment among buyers is becoming more cautious.
This shift is beneficial for
food and
beverage companies. Downstream enterprises can procure raw materials at lower costs, alleviating the cost pressures experienced in recent years due to persistently high sugar prices. However, variables remain – the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon on sugarcane-producing regions in Asia still warrants vigilance.
02 Allulose Breaking New Ground: Opportunities and Challenges in the Chinese Market
The approval of Allulose fills a gap in the domestic high-end functional sugar sector. Compared to common sugar substitutes like
erythritol and
sucralose, Allulose's biggest advantage lies in its "versatility."
"It not only provides a pure sweet taste but can also participate in the Maillard reaction," explained a food R&D expert. This means that in scenarios like baked goods and cooking dishes such as red-braised
pork, Allulose can produce color and flavor similar to sucrose, which is unachievable for most sugar substitutes.
Currently, the construction of domestic Allulose production capacity is accelerating. Leading companies like Baolong Creation and
Baolingbao are actively expanding their布局. Domestic annual production capacity is expected to reach 170,000 tons by 2025.
However, challenges remain: Allulose's current factory price of approximately 30,000 RMB per ton is significantly higher than that of erythritol (around 10,000 RMB per ton), posing a major obstacle to its large-scale adoption.
03 Tighter Regulations: Food Additives Enter an Era of "Reduction in Quantity and Variety"
While the market changes, the regulatory environment is also being reshaped. The new national standard (GB 2760-2024) has removed 13 food additives from the permitted list, including flour treatment agents like benzoyl peroxide and calcium peroxide.
"This sends a clear policy signal: encouraging the food industry to return to the natural qualities of ingredients," pointed out an expert from an industry association. After the implementation of the new standard, companies are compelled to seek more natural alternatives or improve their production processes.
The "clean label" trend is permeating from premium products to the mass market. Consumer attention to ingredients has significantly increased, which is forcing companies to accelerate their transformation. Innovative solutions like natural preservation
technologies and physical preservation processes are encountering new development opportunities.
04 Future Trends: Functionality and Personalization Advance Together
Competition in the sweetener market is shifting from pure price wars to innovation in technology and application scenarios. "The sugar and sweetener market is developing towards functionalization and diversification," said Chen Junshi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.
In specific segments, the characteristics of different sweeteners determine their market positioning:
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Allulose: With its cooking properties, it holds unique advantages in baking and seasoning fields.
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Erythritol: Continues to dominate the beverage market due to its zero calories and clean taste.
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Stevia glycosides: Acceptance is gradually improving as taste modification technologies advance.
Future product development will focus more on the blended use of different sweeteners to achieve the optimal balance of taste and cost. In the era of personalized nutrition, customized solutions tailored to the needs of different consumer groups will become the next focal point of competition.
The global sugar market is at a historic inflection point. On one side, the traditional sugar supply structure is being reshaped; on the other, new sweetener technologies continue to break through. The Chinese sweetener market is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of over 10% in the next five years, with the market size projected to exceed 150 billion RMB by 2027.Driven by both technological breakthroughs and consumption upgrading, those who can find the best balance point between health and deliciousness will be the ones to stand out in this sweet revolution.
More details and data analysis are available in the CCM Sugar & Sweeteners China Monthly Report.
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